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October 2, 2026

Twine Saver, Q3 2026: business formation and corporate strategy

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New business applications peaked in July and cooled in August. Companies reshaped themselves through carve-outs, roll-ups, reverse mergers and acquisitions of AI and data businesses, while the cost of capital rose.

Intertwine Partners4 min read

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Intertwine Associates helps organizations form, grow and run well, and Intertwine Digital builds the software that scientific businesses run on. This review looks at how businesses were formed and reshaped from July 1 to September 30, 2026, from Census Bureau data, the Federal Reserve, and companies' own announcements and SEC filings.

Business formation: a July peak

The Census Bureau's Business Formation Statistics (seasonally adjusted, as first published):

Data month Business applications High-propensity applications Projected new employers within four quarters
June 531,423 (+1.1%) 149,714 (+1.9%) 29,741 (+0.7%)
July 578,926 (+8.1%) 151,857 (+1.4%) 29,959 (+0.7%)
August 531,728 (-7.8%) 145,387 (-4.1%) 28,501 (-4.6%)

High-propensity applications are those the Census Bureau judges most likely to become businesses with payroll. Applications in professional, scientific and technical services, the sector consulting and research firms belong to, numbered 80,691 in August.

Our read: formation remained high by historical standards, but the August pull-back, most visible in the applications most likely to hire, came as borrowing costs rose. September's figures are due October 14.

Two strands of new business, indexed

Business applications and high-propensity applications (those most likely to become employers), each set to 100 in August 2025. All applications rose faster, peaked in July and fell back; the likely employers moved far less. Seasonally adjusted, as currently revised.

All applicationsHigh-propensity
90
100
110
120
130
All applications: 100.0 to 111.4; High-propensity: 100.0 to 101.9111.4101.9
Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics

Business applications, change on the month

Seasonally adjusted, as currently revised. July's 8.1 percent jump was the largest in the year; August gave most of it back.

Up on the monthDown on the month
SepNovJanMarMayJul

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics

The cost of capital

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on July 29, with three members preferring an increase. On September 16 it raised the range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, unanimously, to support a timelier return to its 2 percent inflation goal. For companies that are not yet profitable, the quarter ended with money costing more than it did at the start.

Strategy: how companies reshaped themselves

Carve-outs.

Roll-ups.

  • Altaris's agreement to take Simulations Plus private at $18.50 a share cleared its antitrust review in August. Altaris plans to combine the scientific modeling software company with Chemical Computing Group, another molecular design software business it owns.
  • Private equity also agreed to take the contract manufacturer Lifecore Biomedical private.

Reverse mergers as a financing route. Slate Medicines will merge into Fulcrum Therapeutics, raising $245 million privately alongside. Slate's holders will own 95 percent of the combined public company, and Fulcrum will pay a dividend of about $270 million to its existing holders.

Buying AI and data capability.

  • AMD agreed to acquire World Labs in an all-stock deal valued at about $8.2 billion.

What it means

Our read, not advice:

  • For new companies. The best time to set up clean structures is at formation: separable IP, clear data rights and contracts that can be assigned. It makes a later carve-out, licence or reverse merger simpler.
  • For established companies. Carve-outs and roll-ups were the quarter's tools for focus and scale. Businesses with a unit outside their core have more ways to sell or combine it than a few years ago.
  • For scientific software. Buyers are paying for data, models and workflow software that sit close to scientific decisions. Roll-ups that combine complementary tools, such as Simulations Plus and Chemical Computing Group, are one way that market is consolidating.
  • For planning. With rates rising, financing plans need more room for delay and more than one route.

What we are watching next quarter

  • September business formation data on October 14.
  • Whether rising rates slow carve-outs and private equity roll-ups.
  • How AI and data acquisitions are integrated into larger platforms.

Sources are linked above: the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve, and company announcements and SEC filings. This report is a general summary of trends, prepared by Intertwine Partners solely from publicly available information, and offered for general interest. It is not investment, legal, tax or regulatory advice, not a recommendation about any security, and not an offer or solicitation. The mention of any company does not imply endorsement or any relationship. See the full terms in our Legal Notices, including our independence and conflicts of interest statement. Company and product names are the property of their owners.

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